EUROPE WEATHER FORECAST BLOG

A nasty week of chill is due for much of western and central Europe as a major trough continues to hamper the efforts of the seasons to progress in a more timely aspect. April turned out to be a warmer than normal month in much of the UK, but mother nature has turned the cold shoulder on UK and the west as we marched into the merry month of May and temps the upcoming week are liable to average 5-10F below normal in much of the area from the UK to Spain.
Now who is to blame? Well I dont think we can yet start blaming the volcano (lol) but instead lets look to the normal suspects, the Arctic oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, both negative.
Now this is interesting for the summer since the mediterrranean is so warm. Usually when that is warm, it is a warm summer for much of Europe. However of more immediate concern is the threat of very heavy rains from Spain and the south of France through much of northern and central Italy into southern Germany this week. Included in that package may be major late season snows for the Alps. While Springtime in Paris, and London, at least this part, is chillier than what one would dream of, the intensity of this trough position and the warmth of the aforementioned see as seen here:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomenw.gif

is asking for trouble. In case that link doesnt work, try this then click on where you want to look close up

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

I think summer should turn warmer than normal across much of Europe. My summer idea will come out a bit later, as right now I am in the process of doing hurricane season tidying up with appearances this week in Houston Texas to my private clientele, but I will say that this year has the look of a hot August for much of Europe. The merry month of May though ..nasty chill compared to normal, and plenty of wet weather especially on the southern and east side of the core of the chill, which will be in much of western and central Europe.
thanks for reading.